Climate change, energy production, and Arctic tourism: A case study analysis of northern Alaska

Historically, there have been two kinds of economic activities in northern Alaska. The first and oldest is the subsistence lifestyle of the Indigenous peoples. The second and more recent is the development of the oil and gas industry, which began in earnest in 1977 with the competition of the Trans-Alaskan Pipeline and construction of a new road, the Dalton Highway. Although first used only by commercial traffic for the oilfield, in 1994, the highway opened to the public and is now frequented by tourists travelling above the Arctic Circle. In this paper, we analyse the future of northern Alaska tourism by considering evolutionary economic geography and the area's likely reduction in oil and gas activity. We consider how climate change may serve as a trigger, impacting tourism through the rise of last chance tourism, and conduct a scenario-based analysis. We argue that the oil and gas industry is likely to continue along its current path, exhausting accessible resources and innovating technology to push into new territories in the far north. However, should the culmination of extraneous factors render climate change a trigger, industry decline could be offset by investments that repurpose the area's industrial heritage into tourism sites.