Global spatial distribution of Chromolaena odorata habitat under climate change: random forest modeling of one of the 100 worst invasive alien species

被引:13
|
作者
Adhikari, Pradeep [1 ]
Lee, Yong Ho [1 ,2 ]
Poudel, Anil [3 ]
Hong, Sun Hee [3 ]
Park, Yong-Soon [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Hankyong Natl Univ, Inst Human & Ecol Consensus Resilience Lab, Anseong 17579, South Korea
[2] Korea Univ, OJeong Resilience Inst, Seoul 02841, South Korea
[3] Hankyong Natl Univ, Sch Plant Sci & Landscape Architecture, Coll Agr & Life Sci, Anseong 17579, South Korea
[4] Kongju Natl Univ, Dept Plant Resources, Coll Ind Sci, Yesan 32439, South Korea
[5] Kongju Natl Univ, Agr & Fisheries Life Sci Res Inst, Coll Ind Sci, Yesan 32439, South Korea
来源
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2023年 / 13卷 / 01期
关键词
POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION; SIAM WEED; PERFORMANCE; ACCURACY; IMPROVE; IMPACT; KAPPA; PLANT;
D O I
10.1038/s41598-023-36358-z
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Anthropogenic activities and global climate change increase the risk of Chromolaena odorata invasion and habitat expansion. To predict its global distribution and habitat suitability under climate change, a random forest (RF) model was employed. The RF model, utilizing default parameters, analyzed species presence data and background information. The model revealed that the current spatial distribution of C. odorata covers 7,892,447 km(2). Predictions for 2061-2080 indicate expansion of suitable habitat (42.59 and 46.30%), reduction of suitable habit (12.92 and 12.20%), and preservation of suitable habitat (87.08 and 87.80%) under the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway) 2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, in comparison to the present distribution. Currently, C. odorata is predominantly found in South America, with limited presence in other continents. However, the data suggest that climate change will elevate the global invasion risk of C. odorata worldwide, particularly in Oceania, Africa, and Australia. Countries such as Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Lesotho, which currently have unsuitable habitats, are predicted to have highly suitable habitats with climate change, supporting the idea that global habitat expansion for C. odorata will occur due to climate change. This study indicates that proper management of C. odorata is crucial during the early invasion phase.
引用
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页数:13
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