Prediction of 5-Year Weight Loss and Weight Regain According to Early Weight Loss after Sleeve Gastrectomy

Background Patients with morbid obesity exhibit sustained weight loss after sleeve gastrectomy (SG), but some individuals exhibit subsequent weight regain in the following years. Early weight loss was proven as a predictor of short- and mid-term weight loss and regain. However, the long-term effects of early weight loss have yet to be fully investigated. This study investigated the predictive effects of early weight loss on long-term weight loss and regain after SG.Methods Data of patients who underwent SG from November 2011 to July 2016 and followed through July 2021 were collected retrospectively. Weight regain was defined by weight increase more than 25% of their lost weight at the first postoperative year. Linear regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis were performed to evaluate the correlations among early weight loss, weight loss, and weight regain.Results Data of 408 patients were included. The percentages of total weight loss (%TWL) at postoperative months 1, 3, 12, and 60 were 10.6%, 18.1%, 29.3%, and 26.6%, respectively. The %TWL at months 1 and 3 were significantly correlated with %TWL after 5 years (P < .01). The weight regain rate was 29.8% at 5 years. The %TWL at months 1 and 3 significantly influenced weight regain (hazard ratio: 0.87 and 0.89, P = .017 and .008).Conclusion Early weight loss may be used to predict weight loss and regain 5 years after SG. Patients with poor early weight loss are recommended to receive early interventions to achieve long-term weight loss and prevent weight regain.