Simulating urban land use change trajectories in Guwahati city, India

Urban land use change modelling facilitates predicting future land development trajectories. Geographical and administrative factors are an important component of urban growth dynamics given the context of burgeoning urbanisation in the Global South. Here, the urban growth trajectories of Guwahati metropolitan area, India were predicted to assess the nature and pattern of future land development using a Cellular automata-Markov integrated approach. The built-up area distribution of Guwahati was mapped for 2002, 2010 and 2015 through classification of satellite images. The analysis revealed that the growth of built up areas was rapid and consistent throughout the period. Fourteen drivers of urban growth were identified to project the urban trajectory for 2025 by extrapolating the present trend of change in the Cellular automata-Markov model. Between 2002 and 2015, Guwahati recorded a 61.2 per cent growth of built-up area, though its population grew far less rapidly at 17.7 per cent. The land use of 2025 was predicted for three scenarios viz. business as usual, ecological conservation and economic progression. The results revealed a dismal state of land development discounting the existing ecological impediments. The future development was characterized by extensive expansion and increased densification of built up area with potential proliferation into recreational open spaces and vacant lands in the southwest and northward of the city, as well making inroads into the hills and other natural land covers. The findings would be helpful to decision-makers to minimize land use change triggered urban problems in Guwahati and similar southern contexts.