A global energy system perspective on hydrogen Trade: A framework for the market color and the size analysis

Existing research offers insights into production, operation, and cost efficiencies for the expanding variety of hydrogen (H-2) technologies, suggesting that not a single one, but a portfolio of technologies, may be competitive in emerging markets. In turn, policy studies point out that economic and market conditions may be altered to promote certain options, for instance, renewable energy-based "green" hydrogen over fossil fuel-based alternatives. Such regionally oriented analyses, however useful, do not provide a perspective on a global market or international trade development, which is critical for infrastructure development, demand expansion, and supply commitments. This paper aims to fill this gap by addressing two interrelated questions: 1) what are the prerequisites for hydrogen trade in the context of a global transition to carbon neutrality and 2) how will regional energy system characteristics and regulations affect the growth and the "color" of the hydrogen market? Focused on green H-2, we start our analysis with the evaluation of renewable energy generation potential of individual countries to identify geographic and economic factors and constraints for regional H-2 development. Revealing resource-rich countries with green H-2 export potential and resource-poor regions, likely green H-2 importers, we turn to energy price data showing why green H-2 is likely to face competition from other H-2 colors. We capture those insights with an international hydrogen trade model, focusing on H-2 supply diversity and factors determining local demand, including prices for renewable energy versus fossil fuels, emission constraints, and cost associated with carbon utilization and or disposal. Incorporating supply and demand drivers within a common framework enables us to embrace the complexity and to understand the discrepancies in existing H-2 trade projections. We use the model to explore the role of carbon regulations, rate of renewable energy adoption, transportation costs, and input energy prices in the future H-2 market evolution. To gain further insights into the future trade dynamics, we perform simulations mimicking the emerging German market. Hence, our work provides a unique comprehensive energy system perspective at the global scale, supported by analytical and empirical data analyses.