Incidence, mortality and trends of cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in Germany, the Netherlands, and Scotland

Aim of the study: Cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC) incidences are increasing but scarcely available separated. We analysed incidence rates of cSCC over three decades with an extrapolation to 2040.Methods: Cancer registries from the Netherlands, Scotland and two federal states of Germany (Saarland/Schleswig-Holstein) were sourced for separate cSCC incidence data. Incidence and mortality trends between 1989/90 and 2020 were assessed using Joinpoint regression models. Modified age-period-cohort models were applied to predict incidence rates up to 2044. Rates were age-standardised using the new European standard population (2013). Results: Age-standardised incidence rates (ASIR, per 100,000 persons per year) increased in all populations. The annual percent increase ranged between 2.4% and 5.7%. The highest in-crease occurred in the age groups >60 years, especially in men aged >80 years, with a three to 5-fold increase. Extrapolations up to 2044 showed an unrestrained increase in incidence rates in all countries investigated. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) showed slight increases between 1.4 and 3.2% per year in Saarland and Schleswig-Holstein for both sexes and for men in Scotland. For the Netherlands, ASMRs remained stable for women but declined for men.Conclusion: There was a continuous increase of cSCC incidence over three decades with no