Prediction of bleeding in patients being considered for venous thromboembolism prophylaxis

Background: Venous thromboembolism (pulmonary embolism and deep vein thrombosis) is an important preventable cause of in-hospital death. Prophylaxis with low doses of anticoagulants reduces the incidence of venous thromboem-bolism but can also cause bleeding. It is, therefore, important to stratify the risk of bleeding for hospitalized patients when considering pharmacologic prophylaxis. The IMPROVE (international medical prevention registry on venous thrombo-embolism) and Consensus risk assessment models (RAMs) are the two tools available for such patients. Few studies have evaluated their ability to predict bleeding in a large, unselected cohort of patients. We assessed the ability of the IMPROVE and Consensus bleeding RAMs to predict bleeding within 90 days of hospitalization in a comprehensive analysis encompassing all hospitalized patients, regardless of surgical vs nonsurgical status. Methods: We analyzed consecutive first hospital admissions of 1,228,448 unique surgical and nonsurgical patients to 1298 Veterans Affairs facilities nationwide between January 2016 and December 2021. IMPROVE and Consensus scores were generated using data from a repository of their common electronic medical records. We assessed the ability of the two RAMs to predict bleeding within 90 days of admission. We used area under the receiver operating characteristic curves to determine the prediction of bleeding by each RAM. Results: Of 1,228,448 hospitalized patients, 324,959 (26.5%) were surgical and 903,489 (73.5%) were nonsurgical. Of these patients, 68,372 (5.6%) had a bleeding event within 90 days of admission. The Consensus RAM scores ranged from-5.60 to-1.21 (median,-4.93; interquartile range,-5.60 to-4.93). The IMPROVE RAM scores ranged from 0 to 22 (median, 3.5; interquartile range, 2.5-5). Both showed good calibration, with higher scores associated with higher bleeding rates. The ability of both RAMs to predict 90-day bleeding was low (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.61 for the IMPROVE RAM and 0.59 for the Consensus RAM). The predictive ability was also low at 30 and 60 days for surgical and nonsurgical patients, patients receiving prophylactic, therapeutic, or no anticoagulation, and patients hospitalized for $72 hours. Prediction was also low across different bleeding outcomes (ie, any bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, nongastrointestinal bleeding, and bleeding or death). Conclusions: In this large, unselected, nationwide cohort of surgical and nonsurgical hospital admissions, increasing IMPROVE and Consensus bleeding RAM scores were associated with increasing bleeding rates. However, both RAMs had low ability to predict bleeding at 0 to 90 days after admission. Thus, the currently available RAMs require modification and rigorous reevaluation before they can be applied universally. (J Vasc Surg Venous Lymphat Disord 2023;11:1182-91.)