Assessment of Restoration Degree and Restoration Potential of Key Ecosystem-Regulating Services in the Three-River Headwaters Region Based on Vegetation Coverage

The Three-River Headwaters Region (TRHR) is an important part of the ecological security barrier of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China. Twenty years after the implementation of the TRHR ecological protection and construction project, the restoration degree and restoration potential of its major ecosystem services still lack clear quantification. In this paper, taking the core area of the nature reserve as the climax background of the TRHR zonal ecosystem, based on the multiple regression analysis (MLR) and model parameter control method based on the eco-geographical area, ecosystem types, and climate factors; the climax background, restoration degree, and restoration potential of TRHR's water retention (WR), soil retention (SR), and windbreak and sand fixation (WD) services were quantitatively researched. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) The evaluation method of climax background, restoration degree, and restoration potential based on fractional vegetation cover (FVC) can accurately quantify the regional differences of the restoration degree and restoration potential of TRHR's key ecosystem-regulating services. The restoration degree and restoration potential of WR and SR services showed a spatial pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest, and the restoration degree and restoration potential of WD services showed a spatial pattern of high in the west and low in the east, which was closely related to natural conditions such as precipitation and wind speed. (2) The proportion of restoration potential to climax background for WR, SR, and WD services were 48.38%, 62.15%, and 56.37%, respectively. (3) The implementation of the TRHR ecological project in the future should focus on the vicinity of the 400 mm dry and wet zone dividing line, as well as in the southeastern mountains, hills, and river valleys, to carry out degraded vegetation restoration and soil and water conservation measures to improve ecosystem services. Near-natural restoration measures should be considered in Zhiduo and Geermu in the western part of the TRHR, where wind erosion is high, and the restoration goals of ecological projects should be formulated in combination with local climatic conditions and restoration potential.