Using ORYZA2000 to model cold rice yield response to climate change in the Heilongjiang province, China

Rice(Oryza sativa L.) is one of the most important staple crops in China. Increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and associated climate change may greatly affect rice production. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on cold rice production in the Heilongjiang province, one of China’s most important rice production regions. Data for a baseline period(1961–1990) and the period 2010–2050 in A2 and B2 scenarios were used as input to drive the rice model ORYZA2000 with and without accounting for the effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. The results indicate that mean,maximum, and minimum temperature during the rice growing season, in the future period considered, would increase by 1.8 °C under the A2 scenario and by 2.2 °C under the B2 scenario compared with those in the baseline. The rate of change in average maximum and minimum temperatures would increase by 0.6 °C per 10-year period under the A2 scenario and by 0.4 °C per 10-year period under the B2 scenario. Precipitation would increase slightly in the rice growing season over the next 40 years. The rice growing season would be shortened and the yield would increase in most areas in the Heilongjiang province. Without accounting for CO2 effect, the rice growing season in the period 2010–2050 would be shortened by 4.7 and 5.8 days,and rice yields would increase by 11.9% and 7.9%, under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively.Areas with simulated rice yield increases greater than 30.0% were in the Xiaoxing’an Mountain region. The simulation indicated a decrease in yield of less than 15% in the southwestern Songnen Plain. The rate of change in simulated rice yield was 5.0% and 2.5% per 10 years under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. When CO2 effect was accounted for, rice yield increased by 44.5% and 31.3% under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The areas of increasing yield were sharply expanded. The area of decreasing yield in the western region of Songnen Plains disappeared when increasing CO2 concentration was considered. The stability of rice yield would increase from 2010 to 2050. Overall, the simulation indicates that rice production will be affected positively by climate change in the next 40 years in the Heilongjiang province, China.