Self-organized criticality judgment and extreme statistics analysis of major urban fires

被引：0
|
作者：
WANG JingHong1
2 USTC-CityU Joint Advanced Research Centre
3 Anhui General Fire Brigade
机构：
来源：
Science Bulletin | 2011年 / 06期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
self-organized criticality; extreme statistics; correlation model; major urban fires;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
X928.7 [火灾与爆炸事故];
学科分类号：
0838 ;
摘要：
The spatial (economic loss) and temporal characteristics of urban fires were analyzed employing relevant statistical methods. A fractal structure in terms of the power-law relation between fire frequency and economic loss was found on a spatial scale, and an exponential relation between frequency and time interval was found on a temporal scale. Thus, urban fire does not meet the rigorous criteria of self-organized criticality. In addition, based on the spatial power-law distribution characteristics, a correlation model of the frequency and scale of loss due to urban fire was established using the extremum statistical method. This model was then applied to the case analysis of Hefei and the probability of major fire incidents in the future was predicted.
引用
收藏
页码：568 / 573
页数：6
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