Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Multi-Scenario Modeling of Ecosystem Service Values: A Case Study of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration, China

Ecosystem service value (ESV) assessment is a crucial indicator of regional ecological quality and ecological management effectiveness. Ecosystem services (ES) provide the environmental foundation for human existence and social advancement. However, the future course of land use change (LUC) in urban agglomerations and its implications for human society remains uncertain, which presents a challenge to maintaining a balance between ecological service functions and regional socioeconomic growth. This paper took the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration as an example and used the future land use simulation (FLUS) model to project the spatial distribution of land use under the natural development scenario (NDS), food security scenario (FSS), and ecological priority scenario (EPS) of BTH in 2030, 2040, and 2050. Next, the changes to ESV under various scenarios were investigated through the equivalent coefficient method. In order to make more targeted recommendations for regional development, the study also used hotspot analyses to explore the impacts of LUCs on ESV. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LUC in the BTH was dramatic and mainly focused on the interconversions among the three land use categories of cropland, grassland, and built-up land. The total ESV demonstrated the tendency to decrease from CNY 386,859.89 x 106 in 2000 to CNY 371,968.78 x 106 in 2020. (2) Compared with 2020, the ESV in BTH in 2050 under the FSS loses 16,568.78 x 106 CNY, followed by the NDS (CNY 10,960.84 x 106), while the ESV under the EPS increases by CNY 9373.74 x 106. The results of the scenario simulation showed that there was significant variability in ESV under different political orientations. (3) Hotspot analysis indicated that the ESV changes were clustered in the northeastern part and the eastern coastal region of the BTH. On this basis, we identified Chengde, Beijing, Tianjin, and Zhangjiakou as the key cities to focus on and made meaningful suggestions for their future regional environmental protection and sustainable development. This research can serve as a guide in creating sustainable BTH development policies and offer fresh perspectives for investigating how land use patterns affect the ecological environment's regional quality under various policy trajectories.