Estimating the economic impacts of cargo handling equipment electrification: A case study of the San Pedro Bay ports

Large seaport complexes contribute significantly to air toxic and GHG emissions. As human health impacts of air toxics and climate change grow, policy efforts to reduce these emissions are increasing. California, particularly the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach (POLA/POLB), has taken the lead in air toxic and GHG mitigation policies. The ports aim to achieve zero emissions cargo handling equipment (CHE) by 2030. We use a macroeconometric model, REMI PI+, to analyze the impacts of electrifying CHE at POLA/POLB on the California economy and the transportation sector for 2020-2045. We estimate a net present value loss of about $7.4 billion (2019 dollars) in gross state product (GSP), with potential losses ranging from $5.3 to $10.0 billion GSP depending on assumptions about equipment replacement requirements, electricity price, and capital funding sources.