Does negative feedback on financial performance affect managerial turnover?

Public organizations hold managers accountable for performance, but its impact on managerial outcomes is less understood. We examine how negative financial feedback affects managerial turnover. We revisit a contingency model by adapting the resource dependency theory, predicting that negative performance feedback increases managerial turnover, conditional on organizational resource dependency and managerial coping ability. We test the model using data from Texas school districts and employ a regression discontinuity design based on close scores that determine performance ratings. Receiving a lower rating increases superintendent turnover, with stronger effects in districts more fiscally dependent on the state and with lower-paid superintendents.