Rural revitalisation: Spatio-temporal evolution and multi-scenario prediction of ecosystem service values of second homes in Moudao, China

Second homes are increasingly influencing regional ecological balance and economic development through the integration of rural tourism and culture. This study assesses ecosystem service values (ESV) in Moudao Town, Hubei Province, analyzing land-use changes from 2000 to 2020 and forecasting future dynamics under multi- scenario simulations. Results indicate that urbanization led to construction land expansion, slight forest growth, and reductions in grassland and water bodies, causing fluctuating ESV trends and declining grassland and water service values. Ecosystem sensitivity to provisioning, regulation, and support services increased, signaling heightened vulnerability. Simulations revealed that natural development weakened ecological stability, while ecologically prioritized development enhanced forest and grassland values. The second-home scenario balanced ecological protection with human needs, improving overall ESV and promoting sustainability. These findings offer valuable insights for second-home planning and rural resource management strategies.