Risk of Cancer Recurrence Exerts the Strongest Influence on Choice Between Active Surveillance and Thyroid Surgery as Initial Treatment for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer: Results of a Discrete Choice Experiment

Background: Treatment options for low-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) include active surveillance (AS), hemithyroidectomy (HT), or total thyroidectomy (TT). Improved understanding of patient values and preferences is required to inform shared decision-making. This study examined factors influencing patient treatment preferences and trade-offs for low-risk DTC. Methods: Adult participants with benign thyroid nodules or low-risk DTC completed an online discrete choice experiment (DCE). Utilizing the scenario of a 50-year-old person with a small solitary DTC, participants chose between three unlabeled treatment options (representing AS, HT, and TT). Risk profiles varied across 5 domains: voice change, thyroid hormone supplementation, hypocalcaemia, chance of future thyroid surgery, and 10-year risk of cancer recurrence. Participants self-reported demographics, disease factors, and answered a decisional regret scale. A conditional logit model was utilized. Results: The DCE was completed by 143 patients across three sites. The conditional logit model demonstrated that participants preferred AS (49%) over TT (29%) or HT (22%). All five domains influenced choices (all p < 0.001), but perceived risk of cancer recurrence exerted most influence. Cancer survivors chose AS less often than those with benign disease (46% vs. 57%), driven by perceived risks of further surgery and cancer recurrence. As the perceived risk of cancer recurrence increased, more participants preferred HT over AS. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that when blinded to the actual treatment, patients prefer the trade-offs associated with AS rather than TT or HT. Perceived risk of cancer recurrence exerted the greatest influence. Accurate risk stratification for cancer recurrence is critical to shared decision-making.