Planning of scenarios for sustainable development in Mexico by 2030 based on expert opinion

被引：0
|
作者：
Lengyel-Almos, Krisztina E. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Tecnol Monterrey, Campus Queretaro, Queretaro, Mexico
来源：
ECONOMIA SOCIEDAD Y TERRITORIO | 2024年 / 24卷 / 76期
关键词：
sustainable development; scenario planning; Mexico; Delphi method;
D O I：
10.22136/est20242073
中图分类号：
C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号：
03 ; 0303 ;
摘要：
This article explores the future of sustainable development in Mexico by 2030 through scenario planning. The research is based on qualitative foresight methods including the Delphi method of consensus seeking, cross-impact analysis and scenario planning. Primary data stems from interviewing thirty experts. Results indicate a convergence in expert opinion concerning uncertainties, including heightened political risk, worsening public safety and sluggish economic growth. Using the cross-matrix methodology, four scenarios were developed which show different potential futures by 2030. The most likely scenario suggests that Mexico is unlikely to meet the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN Agenda 2030.
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页数：31
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