The impact of geopolitical transformations on the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: self-determination or genocide?

Geopolitical transformations have drastic effects in many spheres of public life. Their most prominent manifestations are observed with regard to ethno-political conflicts and their settlement processes, particularly when they are accompanied by serious regional rearrangements. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the process of its settlement are among the most typical cases in this regard. After the 2018 change of power in Armenia, the normally developing process of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement within the framework of the main principles of international law ended up in sharp upheavals, succumbing to the logic of the sharply heated West-Russia geopolitical confrontation. The formation of antagonistic relations between the Co-Chair states of the OSCE Minsk Group undermined their mediation efforts, leaving two options for the resolution of the conflict: the realization of people's right to self-determination with the support of international community or the genocide of the Nagorno-Karabakh people. The article considers the threats of a catastrophic development of events due to changes in the positions of powerful actors regarding the conflict settlement under the influence of geopolitical transformations, as well as the possibility of preventing such a development.