Future of Passenger Mobility in the USA: Scenarios for 2030

To develop long-term strategies for transportation planning, it is necessary to understand and address the uncertainties related to mobility. This task is challenging, given the rapid evolution of passenger transportation in the U.S.A. To aid transportation planning, we combine expert insights and quantitative modeling in a two-step process to create scenarios for U.S. passenger transportation in 2030. In the first part, we use inputs from 34 experts on 18 socio-demographic, macro-economic, and technological factors that influence transportation to generate combinations of projections that are reasonable and coherent: we call them scenarios. For the three distinct scenarios thus developed, we use a spreadsheet-based transportation activity accounting tool to estimate nationwide vehicle miles traveled, carbon emissions, and electrification levels. The Hop & Drive scenario is dismal, characterized by a slower economy, greater suburban growth, and higher driving levels. Mapped by Directives envisions a future shaped by ambitious local and federal policies accelerating electrification, reviving U.S. mass transit, and lowering driving levels. The third scenario, Technology Dazzles, imagines the outcomes of rapid technological improvements and adoption, leading to an increasingly automated world with a mobility-as-a-service paradigm beginning to be realized. The projections developed for each scenario should serve as markers for transportation planners at the federal and regional levels who monitor transportation trends. These markers can be used to adjust regional and national transportation funding priorities and understand the broader implications of development and funding strategies under uncertainty.