Preferential Trade Agreements and Leaders' Business Experience

被引:1
|
作者
Nones, Nicola [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Toronto, Munk Sch Global Affairs & Publ Policy, Toronto, ON, Canada
关键词
VETO PLAYERS; GOVERNMENT; IMPACT; POLICY; DETERMINANTS; REGIONALISM; POLITICS; GROWTH; DESIGN;
D O I
10.1093/isq/sqae129
中图分类号
D81 [国际关系];
学科分类号
030207 ;
摘要
Many theories attempt to explain the determinants of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) and their design. Existing accounts, however, focus almost exclusively on structural or domestic factors and ignore individual leaders. In this paper, I develop and test novel theoretical claims regarding executive leaders' prior career in business and their trade cooperation policy once in office. I construct a new dataset on the heads of the executive's business managerial experience and test my main claims in a time-series-cross-sectional setting covering 185 countries from 1948 to 2009. To establish causality, I rely on an instrumental variable strategy and leverage exogenous transitions due to sudden deaths or terminal illness in office. The results show that businesspersons-turned-politicians are more likely to enter PTAs and are more likely to sign deeper PTAs. The relationship is further investigated in an illustrative case study of the 1988-Canada trade deal. The substantive effect of business experience is comparable to that of established factors in the literature, such as regime type, and is robust to numerous tests, specifications, subsamples, and measurements of business experience. Existen muchas teor & iacute;as que intentan explicar tanto los determinantes de los Acuerdos Comerciales Preferenciales (ACP) como su dise & ntilde;o. Sin embargo, los relatos existentes se centran casi exclusivamente en factores estructurales o dom & eacute;sticos y tienden a ignorar a los l & iacute;deres individuales. En este art & iacute;culo, desarrollamos y ponemos a prueba novedosas afirmaciones te & oacute;ricas relativas a la carrera previa de los l & iacute;deres ejecutivos en el mundo de los negocios y a su pol & iacute;tica de cooperaci & oacute;n comercial una vez que llegan al cargo. Desarrollamos un nuevo conjunto de datos referente a la experiencia en materia de gesti & oacute;n empresarial de los Jefes del Ejecutivo y ponemos nuestras principales afirmaciones a prueba en un entorno transversal de series temporales que abarca 185 pa & iacute;ses desde 1948 hasta 2009. Con el fin de poder establecer una relaci & oacute;n de causalidad, utilizamos una estrategia de variables instrumentales y aprovechamos aquellas transiciones ex & oacute;genas que fueron debidas a muertes s & uacute;bitas o a enfermedades terminales durante el cargo. Los resultados muestran que los empresarios convertidos en pol & iacute;ticos tienen m & aacute;s probabilidades de entrar en ACP y que son m & aacute;s propensos a firmar ACP m & aacute;s exhaustivos. Investigamos esta relaci & oacute;n m & aacute;s a fondo mediante un estudio de caso ilustrativo del acuerdo comercial entre Estados Unidos y Canad & aacute; de 1988. El efecto sustantivo de la experiencia empresarial es comparable al de los dem & aacute;s factores que ya hab & iacute;an sido previamente establecidos en la literatura existente, como el tipo de r & eacute;gimen, y es robusto a numerosas pruebas, especificaciones, submuestras y mediciones de la experiencia empresarial. De nombreuses th & eacute;ories tentent d'expliquer les d & eacute;terminants des accords commerciaux pr & eacute;f & eacute;rentiels (ACP) et leur conception. N & eacute;anmoins, les explications existantes se concentrent presque exclusivement sur des facteurs structurels et nationaux, et ne prennent pas en compte les dirigeants. Dans cet article, je d & eacute;veloppe et & eacute;value de nouvelles affirmations th & eacute;oriques quant & agrave; la carri & egrave;re commerciale ant & eacute;rieure des dirigeants de l'ex & eacute;cutif et leur politique de coop & eacute;ration commerciale une fois & eacute;lus. Je construis un nouvel ensemble de donn & eacute;es sur l'exp & eacute;rience de direction commerciale d'un responsable de l'ex & eacute;cutif avant de tester mes principales affirmations dans un environnement chronologique transversal couvrant 185 pays entre 1948 et 2009. Pour d & eacute;terminer des liens de causalit & eacute;, je me fonde sur une strat & eacute;gie de variables instrumentales et exploite des transitions exog & egrave;nes dues & agrave; des d & eacute;c & egrave;s soudains ou des maladies en phase terminale durant un mandat. D'apr & egrave;s les r & eacute;sultats, les dirigeants autrefois commerciaux ont plus de chances de conclure des ACP et d'en signer des plus importants. Pour approfondir cette relation, j'utilise une & eacute;tude de cas d'illustration de l'accord commercial de 1988 entre les & Eacute;tats-Unis et le Canada. L'effet r & eacute;el de l'exp & eacute;rience commerciale est comparable & agrave; celui de facteurs & eacute;tablis dans la litt & eacute;rature, comme le type de r & eacute;gime, et r & eacute;siste & agrave; de nombreux tests, caract & eacute;ristiques, sous-& eacute;chantillons et mesures de l'exp & eacute;rience commerciale.
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页数:14
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