Population-Level Risks for HIV Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the United States by Demographic Characteristics and Medicaid Access, 2020-2021

Objectives. To evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV mortality rates with a focus on demographic predictors and Medicaid access. Methods. Using Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research, we conducted a descriptive study comparing HIV mortality in the United States 2 years before the COVID-19 pandemic (2018-2019) and the initial 2 years of the pandemic (2020-2021), and identifying HIV mortality factors during the pandemic. Results. During the first 2 years of the pandemic, crude HIV death rates increased and then decreased marginally. COVID-19 and HIV together contributed to 11% of the HIV death rate. While African Americans had a higher HIV mortality rate, there was a slight decrease during the pandemic. Nonelderly adults in Medicaid expansion states had lower HIV mortality than those in nonexpansion states. Conclusions. Contrary to initial concerns, we found no substantial increase in HIV mortality. A slight decrease was observed with persisting racial disparities in mortality and lower mortality in states that expanded Medicaid. Public Health Implications. The study findings can inform the development of policies to address demographic disparities in HIV mortality through targeted system-level interventions for vulnerable populations, such as Medicaid expansion and Ryan White Program services. (AmJ Public Health. 2025;115(4):579-587. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307916)