Mechanisms for Forecasting International Trade Conflicts in the Context of the Current Geopolitical Situation

The unstable geopolitical situation in the world affects extremely sensitive sectors of the economy, where there are many interconnected areas. Thus, economic stability and trade flows, which have been established for decades between the leading countries of the world, suffer significantly. The instruments of political pressure, which are used by countries with sufficient power to dictate their terms of establishing world order in the economy, come to the fore. This approach creates critical risks associated with the collapse of the economies of countries, the trade balance and the establishment of geopolitical tension in the regions. This leads to a change in transport flows, a reorientation of sales markets, the desire of states to minimize their losses from such consequences of confrontation, and, as a consequence, destabilization of the situation. The leading countries are creating an alternative to the European Seven (G7), building long-term economic ties with the help of the interstate association of the BRICS countries. Thus, if in 1992 the G7 countries accounted for 45 % of the world's GDP, and the countries that are now part of BRICS - only 22 %, then by the end of 2023 the G7 share had decreased to 30 %, while the BRICS share had grown to 36 %. The article provides historical background of the largest international trade conflicts and their prerequisites. An assessment of the current geopolitical situation is given from the point of view of economic indicators between the countries. Conclusions are formulated based on the collected statistical base on trade relations of the leading countries. The main aspects of the development of new transport corridors and strengthening of proven international relations of Russia are analyzed. An overview is made, an analysis is conducted and the main conclusions are formulated on the considered forecasting and analytical tools, which allow assessing difficult-to-control processes in the form of trade conflicts and sanctions confrontation at the macro level.