Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models

被引:0
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作者
Pan, Naiqing [1 ]
Tian, Hanqin [1 ,2 ]
Shi, Hao [3 ]
Pan, Shufen [1 ,4 ]
Canadell, Josep G. [5 ]
Chang, Jinfeng [6 ]
Ciais, Philippe [7 ]
Davidson, Eric A. [8 ]
Hugelius, Gustaf [9 ,10 ]
Ito, Akihiko [11 ]
Jackson, Robert B. [12 ]
Joos, Fortunat [13 ,14 ]
Lienert, Sebastian [13 ,14 ]
Millet, Dylan B. [15 ]
Olin, Stefan [16 ]
Patra, Prabir K. [17 ]
Thompson, Rona L. [18 ]
Vuichard, Nicolas [7 ]
Wells, Kelley C. [15 ]
Wilson, Chris [19 ,20 ]
You, Yongfa [1 ]
Zaehle, Sonke
机构
[1] Boston Coll, Schiller Inst Integrated Sci & Soc, Ctr Earth Syst Sci & Global Sustainabil, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467 USA
[2] Boston Coll, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Chestnut Hill, MA 02167 USA
[3] Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecoenvironm Sci, State Key Lab Urban & Reg Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China
[4] Boston Coll, Environm Studies Program, Chestnut Hill, MA USA
[5] CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Global Carbon Project, Canberra, ACT, Australia
[6] Zhejiang Univ, Coll Environm & Resource Sci, Hangzhou, Peoples R China
[7] UPSACLAY, UVSQ, CEA, CNRS,Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
[8] Univ Maryland, Ctr Environm Sci, Appalachian Lab, Frostburg, MD USA
[9] Stockholm Univ, Dept Phys Geog, Stockholm, Sweden
[10] Stockholm Univ, Bolin Ctr Climate Res, Stockholm, Sweden
[11] Univ Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
[12] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm & Precourt Inst Energy, Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA 94305 USA
[13] Univ Bern, Phys Inst, Climate & Environm Phys, Bern, Switzerland
[14] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
[15] Univ Minnesota, Dept Soil Water & Climate, St Paul, MN USA
[16] Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Lund, Sweden
[17] JAMSTEC, Res Inst Global Change, Yokohama, Japan
[18] NILU, Norsk Inst Luftforskning, Kjeller, Norway
[19] Univ Leeds, Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Leeds, England
[20] Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, England
关键词
Nitrous oxide; Northern high latitudes; Climate change; Anthropogenic activities; Model ensemble estimation; Permafrost; GREENHOUSE-GAS EMISSIONS; LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM; GLOBAL N2O EMISSIONS; CARBON-DIOXIDE; ELEVATED CO2; FLUXES; PREINDUSTRIAL; TEMPERATURE; RECONSTRUCTION; CROPLANDS;
D O I
10.1016/j.envint.2025.109297
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50 degrees N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2O emissions across the NHL during 1861-2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 +/- 1.0 Gg N/yr (p < 0.01). Over the entire study period, while N fertilizer application (42 +/- 20 %) contributed the largest share to the increase in NHL soil emissions, climate change effect was comparable (37 +/- 25 %), underscoring its significant role. In the recent decade (2007-2016), anthropogenic sources contributed 47 +/- 17 % (279 +/- 156 Gg N/yr) of the total N2O emissions from the NHL, while unmanaged soils contributed a comparable amount (290 +/- 142 Gg N/yr). The trend of increasing emissions from nitrogen fertilizer reversed after the 1980 s because of reduced applications in non-permafrost regions. In addition, increased plant growth due to CO2 fertilization suppressed simulated emissions. However, permafrost soil N2O emissions continued increasing attributable to climate warming; the interaction of climate warming and increasing CO2 concentrations on nitrogen and carbon cycling will determine future trends in NHL soil N2O emissions. The rigorous interplay between process modeling and field experimentation will be essential for improving model representations of the mechanisms controlling N2O fluxes in the Northern High Latitudes and for reducing associated uncertainties.
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页数:10
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