Candidate shortages and the electoral consequences for radical right-wing parties: insights from Sweden

While much research has explored factors that increase support for radical right-wing parties, the role of their local candidates has received less attention. This study contends that parties, particularly those distancing themselves from extremist elements, often struggle with a shortage of candidates, leading to both premature resignations and a lack of suitable replacements. This shortage negatively affects voter support in elections following candidate resignation. To illustrate this issue, the study utilizes a novel dataset examining the Sweden Democrats (SD), a party frequently grappling with "empty seats" in local assemblies, which are allocated seats after elections that remain unfilled or are prematurely vacated by local politicians. The analysis shows that these vacant seats reduce the party's support by approximately 1.7 percentage points in local elections. This effect is compounded by voter turnout; when turnout is low and SD has previously failed to maintain their seats, their support decreases by as much as 10 percentage points. These findings emphasize the significant impact of a robust pool of local candidates on party performance, highlighting the critical role of local candidate representation for the electoral success of radical right-wing parties.