A detailed multi-component heat configuration assessment for complex industrial plants through Monte Carlo simulations: A case study for the cement industry

The decarbonization of industrial plants involves the integration of cleaner and more efficient energy processes, which might include electrification, renewable energy sources, waste heat recovery, and thermal energy storage. The technical viability of each assisting technology is usually assessed through direct simulations of the integrated system, which makes evaluation often difficult. This study proposes a methodology for estimating the heat demands of different configurations of a generic cement plant, aiming to assess the fuel consumption for the several integration cases considered. The waste heat and the mass flow rate of the internal streams are considered variable parameters, which lead to 32 distinct integration cases and 16,000 plant simulations. The operating conditions are generated through a Monte Carlo approach, ensuring the probability distribution of the results. The waste heat measures increase the plant's heat demand and hinder its efficiency. A linear regression for fuel heat demand shows results ranging from 113.72 MW to 492.62 MW.