Voter Preferences for Ethnoracial Minority Candidates: The Role of Policy Alignment and Shared Identity

Existing research suggests that ethnoracial majority voters favor coethnic candidates over those from ethnoracial minorities due to stereotypical inferences about policy positions based on ethnic group and shared group identity. This study examines whether coethnic bias can be mitigated when ethnic minority candidates adopt policy positions favorable to ethnoracial majorities and share a common group identity with them. We conducted a pre-registered survey experiment with Japanese voters, using vignettes that varied a hypothetical candidate's origin, name, and migrant policy proposals. Our findings indicate that ethnoracial majority respondents do not necessarily disfavor ethnic minority candidates. Furthermore, policy positions and shared identity do not mitigate candidate preferences. However, this null result is driven by heterogeneous responses to the candidates' ethnic origins based on perceived threats. Voters who perceive higher threats from ethnoracial minorities are more likely to negatively evaluate ethnic minority candidates, whereas those perceiving lower threats tend to evaluate them positively.