Innovative prediction and causal analysis of accident vehicle towing probability using advanced gradient boosting techniques on extensive road traffic scene data

被引：0

作者：

Zhang, Ronghui ^{[1
]}

Liu, Yang ^{[1
]}

Wang, Zihan ^{[1
]}

Chen, Junzhou ^{[1
]}

Zeng, Qiang ^{[2
]}

Zheng, Lai ^{[3
]}

Zhang, Hui ^{[4
,5
]}

Pei, Yulong ^{[6
]}

机构：

[1] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Intelligent Syst Engn, Guangdong Key Lab Intelligent Transportat Syst, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[2] South China Univ Technol, Sch Civil Engn & Transportat, Guangzhou 510640, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[3] Harbin Inst Technol, Sch Transportat Sci & Engn, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China

[4] Wuhan Univ Technol, Intelligent Transportat Syst Res Ctr, Wuhan 430063, Hubei, Peoples R China

[5] Minist Educ, Engn Res Ctr Transportat Informat & Safety, Wuhan 430063, Hubei, Peoples R China

[6] Northeast Forestry Univ, Sch Civil Engn & Transportat, Harbin 150040, Heilongjiang, Peoples R China

来源：

ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION | 2025年 / 211卷

关键词：

Traffic safety; Road crash vehicle towing; Prior scene feature; Causal factor; SEVERITY;

D O I：

10.1016/j.aap.2024.107909

中图分类号：

TB18 [人体工程学];

学科分类号：

1201 ;

摘要：

Accurate prediction and causal analysis of road crashes are crucial for improving road safety. One critical indicator of road crash severity is whether the involved vehicles require towing. Despite its importance, limited research has utilized this factor for predicting vehicle towing probability and analyzing its causal factors. This study addresses this gap by predicting the probability of vehicle towing in road crashes based on road scene features and identifying key causal factors. Utilizing the Transportation Injury Mapping System (TIMS) dataset from California, USA, encompassing 12 years, 14 relevant features, and over 2 million road crash records, research team developed a prediction model using advanced gradient boosting techniques. Our model outperforms Random Forest, GBDT, and XGBoost in predictive accuracy. Employing the Shapley Additive Explanation (SHAP) method, researchers elucidate seven key factors influencing towing necessity. These findings introduce a novel predictive approach and offer valuable insights for road crash risk assessment and road safety planning.

引用

页数：14