Towards optimizing conservation planning: A performance evaluation of modeling techniques for predicting Mediterranean native species distribution

Understanding the intricate relationships between environmental conditions and key variables influencing species distribution is critical for ecology and conservation, especially in the face of escalating environmental challenges intensified by climate change. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting current and future habitat suitability, aiding in conservation planning. This study specifically sought to evaluate the predictive performance of different modeling techniques in determining the geographical distribution of three Mediterranean native species with different ecological flexibility in the western Mediterranean coastal land of Egypt namely Thymelaea hirsuta (L.) Endl., Ononis vaginalis Vahl, and Limoniastrum monopetalum (L.) Boiss. An ensemble model incorporating three modeling algorithms -the generalized linear model, boosted regression trees, and random forests- was juxtaposed against the Maxent non-parametric machine-learning modeling technique. The models integrated diverse variables, encompassing climatic, edaphic, habitat, and topographic factors. The results unveiled a high degree of similarity and agreement between the Maxent and ensemble models, both exhibiting outstanding fits and performance metrics. The ensemble model demonstrated remarkable accuracy across various measures evaluating model performance. However, Maxent showcased a comparatively strong performance, particularly in identifying critical areas for the distribution of the studied Mediterranean species. These findings emphasize the importance of employing a suite of modeling techniques to refine conservation planning and management strategies. At the local scale, the outcomes can guide targeted actions such as habitat restoration and species monitoring programs. Regionally, and globally it can inform policy development and cross-border conservation initiatives that address shared environmental challenges and contribute to frameworks for studies of similar ecosystems worldwide. Such a comprehensive approach ensures more effective safeguarding of Mediterranean native species under changing environmental conditions.