Development and Validation of Prediction Models for Perceived and Unmet Mental Health Needs in the Canadian General Population: Model-Based Synthetic Estimation Study

Background: Research has shown that perceptions of a mental health need are closely associated with service demands and are an important dimension in needs assessment. Perceived and unmet mental health needs are important factors in the decision-making process regarding mental health services planning and resources allocation. However, few prediction tools are available to be used by policy and decision makers to forecast perceived and unmet mental health needs at the population level. Objective: We aim to develop prediction models to forecast perceived and unmet mental health needs at the provincial and health regional levels in Canada. Methods: Data from 2018, 2019, and 2020 Canadian Community Health Survey and Canadian Urban Environment were used (n=65,000 each year). Perceived and unmet mental health needs were measured by the Perceived Needs for Care Questionnaire. Using the 2018 dataset, we developed the prediction models through the application of regression synthetic estimation for the Atlantic, Central, and Western regions. The models were validated in the 2019 and 2020 datasets at the provincial level and in 10 randomly selected health regions by comparing the observed and predicted proportions of the outcomes. Results: In 2018, a total of 17.82% of the participants reported perceived mental health need and 3.81% reported unmet mental health need. The proportions were similar in 2019 (18.04% and 3.91%) and in 2020 (18.1% and 3.92%). Sex, age, self-reported mental health, physician diagnosed mood and anxiety disorders, self-reported life stress and life satisfaction were the predictors in the 3 regional models. The individual based models had good discriminative power with C statistics over 0.83 and good calibration. Applying the synthetic models in 2019 and 2020 data, the models had the best performance in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia; the absolute differences between observed and predicted proportions were less than 1%. The absolute differences between the predicted and observed proportion of perceived mental health needs in Newfoundland and Labrador (-4.16% in 2020) and Prince Edward Island (4.58% in 2019) were larger than those in other provinces. When applying the models in the 10 selected health regions, the models calibrated well in the health regions in Ontario and in Quebec; the absolute differences in perceived mental health needs ranged from 0.23% to 2.34%. Conclusions: Predicting perceived and unmet mental health at the population level is feasible. There are common factors that contribute to perceived and unmet mental health needs across regions, at different magnitudes, due to different population characteristics. Therefore, predicting perceived and unmet mental health needs should be region specific. The performance of the models at the provincial and health regional levels may be affected by population size.