Assessing the impact of climate change on the distribution of CO2 emissions using the AERMOD dispersion model: comparison of different input data sets

This study evaluated the impact of changing climate elements on CO2 emission distribution using AERMOD model results derived from different meteorological inputs while maintaining consistent orography and emission data. Surface and upper air meteorological data spanning 14 years from 2005 to 2023 were used as inputs. The study focused on highways and state roads in Kocaeli, with CO2 emission data obtained from an inventory study. Significant differences in meteorological factors were observed over the 14 years, including a 64% decrease in average wind speed, a 91% increase in the Calm Winds ratio, and a 4 degrees C rise in average temperature, along with notable changes in wind direction frequencies. Significant statistical differences were found between years and surface meteorological data and between years and higher air layer data, according to statistical tests. Additionally, statistical testing revealed statistically significant differences between the the annual modeling results (p < 0.05). CO2 emissions per km ranged from 1-78,535 kg/day. Modeling showed that maximum CO2 concentrations in 2023 increased by 94% compared to 2005, attributed to meteorological changes. The results underscore that meteorological factors significantly influence pollution distribution, and climate changes due to global warming can alter pollution levels even without increased emissions.