The role of policy and module manufacturing learning in industrial decarbonization by small modular reactors

Small modular reactors (SMRs) offer a unique solution to the challenge of decarbonizing mid- and high-temperature industrial processes. Here we develop deployment pathways for four SMR designs displacing natural gas in industrial heat processes at 925 facilities across the United States under diverse policy and factory or onsite learning conditions. We find that widespread SMR deployment in industry requires gas prices above US$6 per metric million British thermal unit, low capital cost over-runs and/or aggressive carbon taxes. At gas prices of US$6-10 per metric million British thermal unit, 7-55 gigawatt-thermal (GWt) of SMRs could be economically deployed by 2050, reducing annual emissions by up to 59 Mt of CO2-equivalent. Of this deployment, 2-24 GWt rely on module manufacturing learning within a factory. Widespread deployment potential hinges on avoiding substantial cost escalation for early investments. Policy levers such as direct subsidies are not effective at incentivizing sustainable deployment, but aggressive carbon taxes and investment tax credits provide effective support for SMR success. Nuclear small modular reactors could help decarbonize industrial heat processes in the United States, but widespread deployment (of up to a thousand reactors) hinges on factory learning, extended tax credits and avoiding cost escalations.