Fertility Decline to Low and Lowest-Low Levels in Latin America

The literature on fertility trends in Latin America from 2000 to 2010 highlights reductions in higher-order births and the postponement of first births as key drivers of fertility decline. However, the factors sustaining the transition to low and very low fertility levels during 2011-2020 remain underexplored. This paper examines recent fertility trends in Latin America, identifying the main drivers and mechanisms behind the decline and their implications for future fertility patterns. Using period-, age-, and order-specific rates, we assess their contributions to changes in total period fertility rates across six Latin American countries, which together represent nearly three-quarters of the region's population, and the Latinx populations in the United States. Our analysis reveals that most decline (49-85%) is concentrated among the youngest age groups, suggesting that first-birth postponement is the primary underlying mechanism. We contend that, while a slight fertility recovery may occur in the coming decade, very low or even lowest-low fertility levels are possible to persist.