Spatiotemporal analysis of future drought vulnerability in the Hindu Kush Region: A case study of the Karnali River BasinSpatiotemporal analysis of future drought vulnerability in the Hindu Kush Region: a case study of the Karnali River BasinS. Hamal et al.

A slow-onset catastrophe, known as a drought driven by climate change, impacts the Karnali River Basin (KRB), the central part of the Himalaya of the Hindu Kush Region. The present study aims to evaluate the present and future spatial and temporal extent of drought by using noble approach of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in combination with the Geographical Information System (GIS) of the KRB, due to less data availability. In addition, this study makes an effort to predict future temperature and precipitation from to 2021–2100 utilizing the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets under two scenarios: SSP245 and SSP585. The majority of highland areas show very high vulnerability across all seasons, with the central region of the KRB being especially vulnerable. Seasonal vulnerability varies from moderate to very high during pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter. While the monsoon season does not display high sensitivity, overall vulnerability remains high throughout the KRB. Under SSP245, moderate vulnerability increases in winter and pre-monsoon, with high vulnerability rising in the monsoon and post-monsoon periods. In contrast, under SSP585, winter drought vulnerability is projected to intensify. Validation of the AHP-GIS derived vulnerability maps was achieved through a comparison with historical Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). This analysis demonstrated a strong alignment between the regions identified as highly vulnerable by the AHP-GIS approach and the observed drought patterns, confirming the reliability of this efficient alternative technique for identifying drought-prone regions. It also highlights its predictive capability in identifying areas at greater risk of drought. Using AHP and GIS integration, this study proposes a streamlined approach for mapping drought vulnerability with limited datasets, making it suitable for data-scarce regions globally. This validation underscores the robustness of the approach as a valuable tool for drought vulnerability assessment and planning providing, essential insights for decision-makers to plan effective drought mitigation strategies and support sustainable agricultural development and water resources management.