Predicting Postoperative Infection After Cytoreductive Surgery and Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy with Splenectomy

BackgroundHematologic changes after splenectomy and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) can complicate postoperative assessment of infection. This study aimed to develop a machine-learning model to predict postoperative infection after cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and HIPEC with splenectomy.MethodsThe study enrolled patients in the national TriNetX database and at the Johns Hopkins Hospital (JHH) who underwent splenectomy during CRS/HIPEC from 2010 to 2024. Demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, daily laboratory values, and documented infections were collected. The patients were divided into infected and non-infected cohorts within 14 days postoperatively. Extreme gradient boost (XGBoost) machine-learning was used to predict postoperative infection. An initial model was generated using the TriNetX dataset and externally validated in the JHH cohort.ResultsFrom TriNetX, 1016 patients were included: 802 in the non-infected group (79%) and 214 (21%) in the postoperative infection group. The mean age was 61 +/- 13 years, and 597 (56%) of the patientswere female. Most of the patients underwent CRS/HIPEC with splenectomy for appendiceal cancer (n = 590, 56%), followed by colorectal malignancy (n = 299, 29%). The remainder (n = 127, 15%) underwent CRS/HIPEC with splenectomy for gastric, pancreatic, ovarian, and small bowel malignancies or peritoneal mesothelioma. In detecting any infection, XGBoost exhibited excellent prediction accuracy (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.910 +/- 0.073; F1 score, 0.915 +/- 0.040) and retained high accuracy upon external validation with 96 demographically similar JHH patients (AUC, 0.823 +/- 0.08; F1 score, 0.864 +/- 0.03).ConclusionA novel machine-learning algorithm was developed to predict postoperative infection after CRS/HIPEC with splenectomy that could aid in the early diagnosis and initiation of treatment.