Landscape Stability Assessment and Simulation Analysis Under Urban Expansion: A Case Study of Hangzhou, China

In recent years, rapid urbanization has had a profound impact on landscape stability. As a typical example of China's rapid urbanization, Hangzhou has also experienced significant landscape changes, which have profoundly affected its ecological stability. Taking Hangzhou as an example, this study integrates land use change data from 1980 to 2020, combines dynamic simulation and ecological modeling techniques, and carries out a comprehensive analysis of historical trends and future predictions, to provide valuable insights into the complex interactions between urban expansion and landscape stability. The results indicate that: 1) between 1980 and 2020, Hangzhou experienced a significant increase in construction land at the expense of arable land, leading to a gradual decline in landscape stability, though the downward trend has slowed in recent years. 2) The spatial distribution of landscape stability shows clear aggregation patterns, with lower stability concentrated in economically active flatlands and higher stability in the mountainous western regions. 3) By 2040, further urban expansion is predicted to occur alongside increased landscape integration, reflecting the positive effects of ecological protection strategies. This study highlights the universal challenges of balancing economic growth with ecological stability in rapidly urbanizing regions. The combination of advanced simulation models and spatiotemporal analysis demonstrates a replicable framework for assessing urban expansion's ecological impacts. These findings underscore the importance of tailoring urban planning and ecological policies to address regional disparities, providing valuable insights for sustainable urban development and landscape management globally.