Affine Power Flow Multi-scenario Uncertainty Analysis Method for Power System

The power flow solution calculated by the existing affine power flow method can only reflect the power flow distribution of the system in a certain range of the source load power, which is difficult to meet the online calculation requirements of multi-scenario uncertainty analysis. To solve these problems, an affine power flow multi-scenario uncertainty analysis method is proposed in this paper. Various holomorphic embedding variables with different physical meanings are used to scale the central values and partial deviation coefficients of the affine injection power. In this way, the interval variation of uncertain injection power is tracked and described, and the analytical dimension of the affine power flow is expanded from one dimension to multiple dimensions. The calculation of affine power flow is divided into two parts: analytic expression solving and online calculation. The multivariate power series coefficients of affine status variables are solved recursively, and the analytical expression for affine power flow is obtained. The online calculation of affine power flow in specific scenarios is realized by substituting the target value of embedded variables. The simulation results verify the advantages of the proposed method in convergence, conservatism and multi-scenario analysis efficiency. © 2025 Power System Technology Press. All rights reserved.