Amplified threat of tropical cyclones to US offshore wind energy in a changing climate

The vulnerability of US offshore wind energy to tropical cyclones is a pressing concern, particularly along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, key areas for offshore wind energy development. Assessing the impact of projected climate change on tropical cyclones, and consequently on offshore wind resources, is thus critical for effective risk management. Herein, we investigate the evolving risk to offshore wind turbines posed by Atlantic tropical cyclones in a non-stationary climate using a synthetic tropical cyclone model. Integrated with climate model simulations, projections show widespread increases in tropical cyclone exposure, with historical 20-year storms occurring every similar to 12.7 years on average, increasing in intensity by about 9.3 ms(-1). Subsequent fragility analysis reveals that the probabilities of turbine yielding and buckling from a 20-year tropical cyclone could increase by about 37% and 13%, respectively, with regional increases reaching up to 51%. These findings carry substantial implications for the operation and future expansion of offshore wind farms.