Research on the Analysis of Influencing Factors of Undergraduate Academic Achievement in Local Colleges and Universities and Establishment of Predictive Models

The quality of higher education directly points to the academic achievement of college students, and clarifying the influencing factors related to college students' academic achievement is a prerequisite to helping college students improve their academic achievement. In this paper, structural equation modeling is used to analyze the influencing factors of the academic achievement of undergraduates in local colleges and universities, and then the PSO-WRF model is constructed to predict the academic achievement of undergraduates in local colleges and universities. Path analysis and direct effect analysis are carried out on the influencing factors model. Finally, the PSO-WRF model is empirically analyzed and integrated into the influencing factor model to compare its prediction effect and obtain the best model. The study hypothesized that the critical ratios C.R. of H1~H6 are all greater than 1.96, the P-values are all less than 0.01, and the estimates reach the 0.05 level of significance, which indicates that all hypotheses are valid, i.e., there is a significant and positive Emotional Intelligence to Learning Motivation, Emotional Intelligence to Academic Achievement, Emotional Intelligence to Learning Strategies, Learning Motivation to Academic Achievement, Learning Motivation to Learning Strategies, and Learning Strategies to Academic Achievement The relationship between emotional intelligence and academic achievement The mediation effect test concluded that there is a mediating effect of learning motivation in the effect of emotional intelligence on academic achievement. Its prediction effect was optimal after incorporating the influencing factor model in the multi-period academic achievement prediction model considering historical information, and its prediction accuracy was 0.904, which was improved by 0.033 compared with that when it was not incorporated. In this paper, the influencing paths of the factors on undergraduates' academic achievement were verified, and their incorporation into the prediction model was of great significance in the study of academic achievement prediction. © 2024 Juan Chen, published by Sciendo.