Tracing thermal power emissions footprint in a global value chains perspective

The power sector has become one of the biggest challenges to global climate mitigation through fuel-based generation. Using a database of 35,000 thermal-power plants worldwide, this study measures thermal-poweremissions footprint through global value chains (GVCs) analysis and explores drivers of footprint change by LMDI. The main findings show that international trade induces over 20% of global thermal-power-emissions and biomass-power-emissions grows by almost 20 % p.a., while other fuel-power-emissions grows by less than 2.5 % p.a. Furthermore, the results of thermal-power-emissions considered on the producer and consumer side vary considerably, and forced by further consumption demand growth in high-income economies, low and middleincome economies remain in negative thermal-power-emissions transfer in 2019, deteriorating further in complex GVCs and traditional trade. Per capita demand and population growth account for most thermal-poweremissions growth. Reducing effects are strongest in extreme event years when power demand falls, followed by rising clean-power shares and unit generation costs. In addition, biomass-power with weak abatement constraints contributes up to a quarter of global thermal-power-emissions growth, or 7 % of global carbon emissions growth. Based on these findings, recommendations such as establishing eco-cooperation for low-carbon generation techs and improving cross-border access to clean-power are proposed to achieve a globally efficient and practical effect of thermal-power mitigation.