Spatiotemporal Evolution of Construction Land and Its Driving Mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta Region:A Perspective of Diverse Development Orientation

Scientifically understanding the evolution of urbanization and analysing the coupling mechanism of human-land systems are important foundations for solving spatial conflicts and promoting regional sustainable development. This study analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and landscape pattern change of construction land in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region from 1990 to 2018 by integrating Geographical Information System(GIS) spatial analysis and landscape pattern indices, and revealed its driving mechanism by XGBoost and SHapley Additive ex Planations(SHAP). Moreover, we compared the disparities in the core driving factors for construction land evolution in cities with diverse development orientations within the YRD region. Results show that: 1) development intensity of construction land continued to increase from 7.54% in 1990 to 13.44% in 2018, primarily by occupying farmland. The landscape fragmentation of construction land in the YRD region decreased, and landscape dominance increased. Spatially, the eastern part of the YRD exhibits a high degree of spatial agglomeration of construction land, whereas the western part shows a high degree of fragmentation, revealing distinct spatial gradient differentiation characteristics. The landscape dominance of the construction land in the eastern region of the YRD is higher than that in the western and northern regions. 2) Transportation and infrastructure exert the highest contribution rate on development intensity changes of construction land in the YRD. The industrial structure significantly influences the conversion of farmland to construction land. Additionally, infrastructure plays a crucial role in shaping the spatial agglomeration patterns of construction land. Population distribution is the dominant factor determining the regularity of the landscape shape of construction land.3) The core driving factors for the development intensity of construction land in central cities primarily lies in transportation, whereas for non-central cities, besides transportation, the year-end balance of per capita savings deposits of urban and rural residents also play a significant role. The area change of construction land occupying farmland in central and non-central cities is mainly driven by industrial structure and economic level, respectively. This study informs refined spatial optimization and regional high-quality integrated development.