Estimation and evaluation of uncertainty: A minimalist first pass approach

This paper describes an approach to the estimation and evaluation of uncertainty designed for ease of use. It is designed to be easier to use than probability impact grid based approaches, and it links qualitative approaches in this format to quantitative approaches. It is based on a general view of uncertainty which incorporates ambiguity as well as variability and lack of data. A concern for identifying sources of uncertainty is one characteristic of the approach which flows from this perspective. Other characteristics include deliberate conservative bias to counteract persistent underestimation of uncertainty. It is set in the context of an iterative approach to an overall uncertainty management process. The example used to illustrate the approach involves project duration and cost estimation for bidding purposes.