Future business models for hydrogen in Swedish road transportation

Hydrogen has emerged as a potential enabler for reducing emissions in the transport sector. To fully harness its potential, stakeholders must adapt their business models to accommodate future business conditions. In our study, we focused on the Swedish road transportation sector and analyzed potential future conditions that will likely impact business models up to 2045. We outlined existing business models for hydrogen producers and hydrogen refueling station owners using the Business Model Canvas as an analytical framework. By considering policy documents, hydrogen roadmaps, scenario reports, and insights from interviews and workshops with industry experts, we identified key future business conditions. These conditions were categorized into four themes: 'Net-Zero CO2', 'Mature Market', 'Electricity Price Volatility', and 'Heavy-Duty & Long-Haul'. Finally, we applied these conditions to today's business models to propose how future business models for 2045 might evolve. The main differences identified between the current and the future business models were the reduced complexity of the future business model and the opportunity to emphasize additional value offerings to fossil-free hydrogen, since the fossil-free value will be less unique in a future where fossil-free is the norm.