Is the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Manufacturing Carbon Emissions in China Toward Convergence?

Understanding the convergence characteristics of manufacturing carbon emissions (MCEs) in China is essential for aligning regional carbon reduction efforts and achieving national climate goals. This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution and convergence of MCEs across China and its eastern, central, and western regions, using panel data from 30 provinces spanning 2001 to 2020. A spatial panel model is applied to analyze convergence trends and influencing factors. The findings reveal three key insights: (1) Nationwide, the disparity in MCEs is expanding, with significant spatial imbalances; intra-regionally, emission disparities are highest in the eastern region and lowest in the western region. (2) Both nationally and regionally, MCEs lacks a converging trend, complicating coordinated carbon reduction efforts. Less economically developed regions exhibit higher degrees and rates of spatial divergence. (3) Technological advancement and energy structure optimization accelerate spatial divergence, while reduced disparities in manufacturing output and urbanization levels help mitigate it. These results underscore the need for a gradient-based, region-specific approach to achieve carbon peaking and neutrality in China.