Physics-based, data-driven production forecasting in the Utica and Point Pleasant Formation

We introduce a robust, data-driven and physics-based method to forecast the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of gas and condensates from the Utica-Point Pleasant Formation. By categorizing 3,410 horizontal wells into eight static cohorts based on the initial gas-oil ratios (GOR) and completion dates, we construct generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions of annual reservoir fluid mass production for each cohort. We use the expected values (means) to build historical, statistical well prototypes for each cohort. These prototypes account for hydraulic fracture deterioration, pressure interference between neighboring fractures, well interference, and advancements incompletion technology. We extrapolate mass production of the reservoir fluids for several decades by fitting the scaling parameters of our physics-based model to the statistical well prototypes. A key innovation in this approach is using GEV statistics to generate a time series for each cohort's GOR and condensate-gas ratio (CGR). We replace the individual production rates from all existing wells with their corresponding extended well prototypes and convert mass to volumetric rates. We sum up the latter rates and provide abase forecast of total reservoir fluid rates and cumulative production, closely matching the historical field production. Our base forecasts predict approximately 23 trillion scf of gas and 200 million barrels of condensate by 2035. The Utica-Point Pleasant Formation is divided into core and noncore areas, each further subdivided into regions based on fluid types. We analyze the future infill potential per square mile in each of these regions, proposing two drilling schedules and four potential future drilling scenarios. We identify approximately 35,847 potential future wells: 12,476 in the core area and 23,371 in the noncore area. The core wells can contribute about 157 trillion scf of natural gas and 0.9 billion barrels of condensate. This study marks the first integrated evaluation of the future production from the Utica-Point Pleasant Formation by combining GEV statistics, physics-based modeling, big-data analysis, geology, proposed drilling programs, and economics. It provides a comprehensive understanding of the Utica-Point Pleasant Formation's significance in future U.S. shale production.