Application of corresponding rising difference model to real-time flood forecast and dispatching of reservoir

Because of the communications malfunction or remote measuring system mistake, the rain and water data in watershed can not be obtained during precipitation while only the data of water levels and flows in central station can be got. Under this condition, the real-time flood forecast and dispatching of reservoir is a difficult problem. In order to resolve this problem, improved corresponding rising difference model has been applied to reservoir real-time flood forecast and dispatching. Attenuation recollection recursive least square method is used to estimate model parameter and flow revising equation is used to revise the forecasted results. Through the verification of model and revising equation, the forecast model can be applied to the flood forecast of reservoir or river course. When doing reservoir real-time flood forecast, it only needs the data of central station s water levels and flows, so its calculation is simple. Example application in Dahuofang reservoir shows that the forecasted results are satisfactory. The forecasted real-time flow can provide reference for plans establishment of real-time dispatching. The model also can provide flood forecast and dispatching reference for other ungauged regions.