Energy Supply Planning of the Five Northwest Provinces in 2030 Under Carbon Intensity and Water Resource Constraints

For comprehensive control over rational allocation at the energy supply side, better energy transformation and low-carbon development in the five northwest provinces in the context of peak CO2 emissions and water shortage, the LEAP model is used to predict the end energy demands of these provinces by taking 2017 as the base year and 2018-2030 as predictive period. Moreover, their energy structure reform, energy supply planning, energy dispatching planning and capacity construction planning in 2018-2030 are studied from the supply side under carbon intensity and water resource constraints. The results show that developing renewable energy will be the main mean for these provinces to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. In terms of energy mix, the proportion of raw coal, oil and gas, and non-fossil energy among primary energy will change from 6:3:1 in 2017 to 3:3:4 in 2030 and that of the coal, oil and gas, and electricity among the end-use energy will change from 5:3:2 in 2017 to 1:5:4 in 2030. In terms of energy production, the coal production is still on the rise, the oil production keeps a low growth trend, and the natural gas has great potential to increase production. Electrification is the trend of future development, power supply capacity will continue to increase, the shortage of water resources in these provinces will further curb the development of thermal power. This study is expected to provide theoretical reference for the low-carbon development of these provinces under the premise of rational allocation of water resources. © 2022, Editorial Office of Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University. All right reserved.