A River Water Quality Prediction Method Based on Dual Signal Decomposition and Deep Learning

Traditional single prediction models struggle to address the complexity and nonlinear changes in water quality forecasting. To address this challenge, this study proposed a coupled prediction model (RF-TVSV-SCL). The model includes Random Forest (RF) feature selection, dual signal decomposition (Time-Varying Filtered Empirical Mode Decomposition, TVF-EMD, and Sparrow Search Algorithm-Optimized Variational Mode Decomposition, SSA-VMD), and a deep learning predictive model (Sparrow Search Algorithm-Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short-Term Memory, SSA-CNN-LSTM). Firstly, the RF method was used for feature selection to extract important features relevant to water quality prediction. Then, TVF-EMD was employed for preliminary decomposition of the water quality data, followed by a secondary decomposition of complex Intrinsic Mode Function (IMF) components using SSA-VMD. Finally, the SSA-CNN-LSTM model was utilized to predict the processed data. This model was evaluated for predicting total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), ammonia nitrogen (NH3-N), dissolved oxygen (DO), permanganate index (CODMn), conductivity (EC), and turbidity (TB), across 1, 3, 5, and 7-d forecast periods. The model performed exceptionally well in short-term predictions, particularly within the 1-3 d range. For 1-, 3-, 5-, and 7-d forecasts, R2 ranged from 0.93-0.96, 0.79-0.87, 0.63-0.72, and 0.56-0.64, respectively, significantly outperforming other comparison models. The RF-TVSV-SCL model demonstrates excellent predictive capability and generalization ability, providing robust technical support for water quality forecasting and pollution prevention.