Traffic conflict prediction and influencing factors analysis of truck lane change on expressway

被引：0
|
作者：
Wen, Hui-Ying [1 ]
He, Zi-Qi [1 ]
Li, Qiu-Ling [1 ]
Zhao, Sheng [1 ]
机构：
[1] School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou,510641, China
来源：
Jilin Daxue Xuebao (Gongxueban)/Journal of Jilin University (Engineering and Technology Edition) | 2024年 / 54卷 / 10期
关键词：
In order to study the characteristics of lane changing conflicts involving trucks on the expressway; reduce the risk; and explore the significant factors that cause traffic conflicts among lane changing behaviors of trucks. Firstly; this paper considered the traffic conflict measurement indicators of time and space dimensions; proposed judgment indexes; and used the extracted traffic conflict indexes as a category of samples in the conflict prediction model. Secondly; the XGBoost algorithm was adopted to build the prediction model; and its performance was compared with the Random Forest（RF）and Gradient Boosting Decision Tree（GBDT）algorithms. Finally; the SHAP algorithm was used to study the impact of traffic conflicts on truck lane changes; including the lane changing characteristics of trucks; the relative motion state between different vehicles; and traffic flow. The results show that the XGBoost model has a better prediction effect; with an accuracy and F1-score of 83.87% and 84.85%; respectively. The lane changing safety of trucks is greatly affected by the motion status of the preceding vehicle in the original and target lanes; and the occurrence of collision is negatively correlated with the vehicle length and traffic volume of the road section per minute. Under the interaction of multiple factors; when the traffic volume of a section is more than 70 pcu per minute; the probability of collision when trucks change lanes increases with the increase of the proportion of trucks in the traffic flow. When the vehicle length is less than 8 m; the possibility of truck collision is positively correlated with the speed along the lane line. © 2024 Editorial Board of Jilin University. All rights reserved;
D O I：
10.13229/j.cnki.jdxbgxb.20221569
中图分类号：
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摘要：
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页码：2827 / 2836
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