Spatio-temporal distribution and causes of county-level urban construction and investment bonds in China

被引：0
|
作者：
Wang X. [1 ]
Jiang Y. [1 ]
Wu L. [2 ]
Ma R. [3 ]
机构：
[1] School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai
[2] School of Economics, Xiamen University, Fujian, Xiamen
[3] Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Zhejiang, Ningbo
来源：
Dili Xuebao/Acta Geographica Sinica | 2024年 / 79卷 / 04期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
causes of heterogeneity; China; county; spatio-temporal distribution; urban construction and investment bonds;
D O I：
10.11821/dlxb202404008
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
The rapid expansion and accumulation of local government debt has become one of the critical and difficult issues affecting the sustainable development of regional economies and societies. Using economic and social attribute data such as county-level urban construction and investment bonds and public budget revenue and expenditure, this study employed methods such as spatial autocorrelation and Tobit model to investigate the spatio-temporal development characteristics and heterogeneous causes of public debt at the county level in China. The results show that: (1) From 2007 to 2020, the issuance amount of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level in China tended to expand, showing distinct characteristics of "policy debt" with obvious regional disparities and industry clusters. Throughout the study period, the distribution area of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level showed an expansion trend with clear spatial clustering characteristics, with hotspots and coldspots concentrated in the counties east of the Hu Huanyong Line. (2) Under the current local tax and levy system in China, grassroots financial operations in counties are facing challenges, among which fiscal pressure and development pressure are the key factors for the expansion of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level. (3) The proliferation mechanism of urban construction and investment bonds at the county level shows significant regional and sectoral differences. Fiscal pressure significantly encourages the proliferation of these bonds in underdeveloped districts, e.g. outside municipal jurisdictions and provincial capitals, development pressure particularly stimulates bond issuance in districts of the eastern region and districts within competitive urban clusters. Fiscal pressure has a negative impact on bond issuance in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, while development pressure favours bond issuance in the real estate and construction sectors. This study provides a new perspective for understanding the expansion of local government debt at the county level and serves as a reference for controlling the disorderly expansion of government debt at the county level and avoiding risks associated with local government debt. © 2024 Science Press. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：949 / 970
页数：21
相关论文
共 64 条
  • [1] Tsui K Y., China's infrastructure investment boom and local debt crisis, Eurasian Geography and Economics, 52, 5, pp. 686-711, (2011)
  • [2] Zhang J F, Li L L, Zhang D X, Et al., Seven super urban agglomerations, governments' debt risk, and land leasing, China, Growth and Change, 52, 4, pp. 2662-2679, (2021)
  • [3] Lan X H., Embedded Power: Chinese Government and Economic Development, (2021)
  • [4] Li Quan, Song Gaoya, Jia Kang, The path choice of fiscal tight balance under the orientation of governance optimization in the new era, Economic Perspectives, 63, 4, pp. 15-28, (2022)
  • [5] Fang Lei, Nie Guibo, Zhang Xuewei, Et al., The dynamic evolution of provincial government debt development level in China from 2009 to 2018, Economic Geography, 41, 4, pp. 23-29, (2021)
  • [6] Besancenot D, Huynh K, Vranceanu R., Default on sustainable public debt: Illiquidity suspect convicted, Economics Letters, 82, 2, pp. 205-211, (2004)
  • [7] Liu C, Moldogaziev T T, Mikesell J L., Corruption and state and local government debt expansion, Public Administration Review, 77, 5, pp. 681-690, (2017)
  • [8] Micheli M., Local governments' indebtedness and its impact on real estate prices, Urban Studies, 57, 5, pp. 1032-1048, (2020)
  • [9] Navarro-Galera A, Lara-Rubio J, Buendia-Carrillo D, Et al., What can increase the default risk in local governments?, International Review of Administrative Sciences, 83, 2, pp. 397-419, (2017)
  • [10] Yang Congjie, Liu Shoubing, The local government debt problem: Understanding, reference and countermeasures, Theory Journal, 23, 11, pp. 66-68, (2006)
1234567