Province-Level Decarbonization Potentials for China's Road Transportation Sector

Decarbonizing road transportation is an important task in achieving China's climate goals. Illustrating the mitigation potentials of announced policies and identifying additional strategies for various vehicle fleets are fundamental in optimizing future control pathways. Herein, we developed a comprehensive analysis of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from on-road vehicles as well as their mitigation potentials based on real-world databases and up-to-date policy scenarios. Total CO2 emissions of China's road transportation are estimated to be 1102 million tons (Mt) in 2022 and will continue to increase if future strategies are implemented as usual. Under current development trend and announced policy controls (i.e., integrated scenario), annual CO2 emissions are estimated to peak at 1235 Mt in 2025 and then decline to approximately 200 Mt around 2050. The scenario analysis indicates that electrification of passenger vehicles emerges as the most imperative decarbonization strategy for achieving carbon peak before 2030. Additionally, fuel economy improvement of conventional vehicles is identified to be effective for CO2 emission reduction for trucks until 2035 while new energy vehicle promotion shows great mitigation potentials in the long term. This study provides insight into heterogeneous low-carbon transportation transition strategies and valuable support for achieving China's dual-carbon goals.