Best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delay distributions of infectious diseases

被引:1
|
作者
Charniga, Kelly [1 ]
Park, Sang Woo [2 ]
Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R. [3 ]
Cori, Anne [4 ]
Dushoff, Jonathan [5 ,6 ,7 ]
Funk, Sebastian [8 ,9 ]
Gostic, Katelyn M. [10 ]
Linton, Natalie M. [11 ]
Lison, Adrian [12 ]
Overton, Christopher E. [13 ,14 ,15 ]
Pulliam, Juliet R. C. [10 ]
Ward, Thomas [14 ]
Cauchemez, Simon [1 ]
Abbott, Sam [8 ,9 ]
机构
[1] Univ Paris Cite, Inst Pasteur, Math Modelling Infect Dis Unit, CNRS UMR 2000, Paris, France
[2] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ USA
[3] Natl Taiwan Univ, Coll Publ Hlth, Taipei, Taiwan
[4] Imperial Coll London, MRC Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, Sch Publ Hlth, London, England
[5] McMaster Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Hamilton, ON, Canada
[6] McMaster Univ, Dept Biol, Hamilton, ON, Canada
[7] McMaster Univ, M G DeGroote Inst Infect Dis Res, Hamilton, ON, Canada
[8] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol & Dynam, London, England
[9] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England
[10] US Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Ctr Forecasting & Outbreak Analyt, Atlanta, GA USA
[11] Hokkaido Univ, Grad Sch Med, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan
[12] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Dept Biosyst Sci & Engn, Zurich, Switzerland
[13] Univ Liverpool, Dept Math Sci, Liverpool, England
[14] UK Hlth Secur Agcy, Infect Dis Modelling Team, All Hazards Intelligence, Data Analyt & Surveillance, London, England
[15] Univ Manchester, Dept Math, Manchester, England
基金
英国医学研究理事会;
关键词
INCUBATION PERIOD; SERIAL INTERVAL; VIRAL-INFECTIONS; VIRUS-INFECTION; OUTBREAK; TIME; JURISDICTIONS; HOUSEHOLDS; COVID-19; CONTACT;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012520
中图分类号
Q5 [生物化学];
学科分类号
071010 ; 081704 ;
摘要
Epidemiological delays are key quantities that inform public health policy and clinical practice. They are used as inputs for mathematical and statistical models, which in turn can guide control strategies. In recent work, we found that censoring, right truncation, and dynamical bias were rarely addressed correctly when estimating delays and that these biases were large enough to have knock-on impacts across a large number of use cases. Here, we formulate a checklist of best practices for estimating and reporting epidemiological delays. We also provide a flowchart to guide practitioners based on their data. Our examples are focused on the incubation period and serial interval due to their importance in outbreak response and modeling, but our recommendations are applicable to other delays. The recommendations, which are based on the literature and our experience estimating epidemiological delay distributions during outbreak responses, can help improve the robustness and utility of reported estimates and provide guidance for the evaluation of estimates for downstream use in transmission models or other analyses.
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页数:21
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